Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10930

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10929, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10930
    26 Oct 2026, 14:34 UTC

    HTRA1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionHTRA1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredccdfa01cc1cf7c13

    discovery+0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1f7f130f28d5c8893d465d4f…
    follows c1b50af84160…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10930: HTRA1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.14, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HTRA1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.