Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

HTRA1

HtrA serine peptidase 1

translation score 0.52, read 2026-10-26; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including oligodendrocyte progenitor cells; strongest in podocytes0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
18 Parkinson's papers of 1,0560.61
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly protein handling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 10921

Sealed predictions

  1. HTRA1 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.08 (p 0.838) → +0.25 (p 0.514)receipt 10931
  2. HTRA1 in oligodendrocytes, braak+0.03 (p 0.944) → -0.11 (p 0.784)receipt 10930

Swarm cases

receipt 10931: HTRA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HTRA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 10930: HTRA1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.14, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HTRA1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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