Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10922

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.442). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10921, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10922
    26 Oct 2026, 14:25 UTC

    ALOX5

    microglia, braak

    predictionALOX5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd4d1fdae0aac876

    discovery-0.29 p=0.442 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.442)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e79adeb893de2e5e9ae2be00…
    follows 647dbc2bee13…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10922: ALOX5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALOX5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.