Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10916

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.856). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10915, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10916
    26 Oct 2026, 14:17 UTC

    HILPDA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHILPDA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7637ed99c1973cd

    discovery-0.07 p=0.856 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.403 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.856)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a6398fbe14c6c1f44d10545…
    follows f19639638f27…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10916: HILPDA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.26, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HILPDA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.