Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10656

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.02 p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10655, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10656
    26 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC

    MTHFD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTHFD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda096a34bacb69377

    discovery-0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.02 p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    64d88cbc50c8b9eeb5ed4e0d…
    follows 66b4e4d4fc4d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10656: MTHFD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTHFD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.