Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10541

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10540, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10541
    26 Oct 2026, 05:43 UTC

    SGPL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSGPL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8eec9d3be97b155

    discovery+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    416e38336468f41e86950596…
    follows 295fcd2c77da…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10541: SGPL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.70 (p 0.0011, n 18) vs +0.21 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SGPL1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SGPL1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)