Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10464

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.355). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10463, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10464
    26 Oct 2026, 04:02 UTC

    SERPINE2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSERPINE2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered257d357a56db4d28

    discovery+0.35 p=0.355 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.355)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    58e9a8afdcffe4e824b0ce98…
    follows 06390563c962…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10464: SERPINE2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINE2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.