Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10286

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10285, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10286
    26 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

    NCAN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCAN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc0500d0a66b2f310

    discovery-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da1d29a1cb9973c7c4a62645…
    follows f0fce456b41e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10286: NCAN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.