Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10285

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10284, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10285
    26 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

    NCAN

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNCAN in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e077f23b0879511

    discovery+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0fce456b41e48a289be4f30…
    follows bad6a87112f2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10285: NCAN in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAN in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.