Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10186

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.28 p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10185, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10186
    25 Oct 2026, 22:44 UTC

    ACAP3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionACAP3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc7b264ddb9fcd88c

    discovery-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.28 p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    688d1110cefb91c48f180e76…
    follows 84c1b5bcefe7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10186: ACAP3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.43 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACAP3 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ACAP3 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 2.1e-4)