Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9988

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9987, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9988
    25 Oct 2026, 18:17 UTC

    IPO5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIPO5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0f1aaa65a9fcee83

    discovery-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fc5ae4e8365d1d16ed8f5428…
    follows bc25a1455f45…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9988: IPO5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.10, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IPO5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.