Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9926

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9925, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9926
    25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC

    RNF13

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRNF13 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb89fc3b74d532cee

    discovery+0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication+0.59 p=0.095 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e0bbd841e41a509fdb3cfd04…
    follows d4e49e10c1d4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9926: RNF13 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.56 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.68 (p 0.0017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.50 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.72 (p 8.2e-4, n 18) vs +0.56 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF13 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RNF13 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 2.2e-4)