Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9877

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9876, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9877
    25 Oct 2026, 15:51 UTC

    JUP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJUP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3eaa9db23fe1e1a0

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a8adb199406d6315d1067c1…
    follows 8f37f4d8d9c0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9877: JUP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JUP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.