Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9840

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.362). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9839, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9840
    25 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC

    MAPK8IP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAPK8IP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbaaaa7897accc47e

    discovery-0.35 p=0.362 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.362)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4108bd420f5820d212cf7112…
    follows 8481a4f2110c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9840: MAPK8IP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK8IP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.