Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9721

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.699). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9720, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9721
    25 Oct 2026, 12:22 UTC

    NPNT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNPNT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8715dee0905a8ac

    discovery+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.699)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    678208105e0d4f961f158dc5…
    follows 29730c20291e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9721: NPNT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPNT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.