Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9715

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9714, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9715
    25 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC

    SLC28A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC28A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda743499045f380b2

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    19d5f2f82529fbb01bfb2e4c…
    follows 4c0a9eb090d4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9715: SLC28A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.18, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC28A3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.