Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9698

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9697, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9698
    25 Oct 2026, 11:49 UTC

    PRKAR2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRKAR2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc9a6330852769612

    discovery+0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d21cc1f9a854dac8f1bb5d43…
    follows 86d88272413f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9698: PRKAR2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18), 95% CI +0.28 to +0.86. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.62 to +0.80, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRKAR2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.