Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9577

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9576, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9577
    25 Oct 2026, 09:10 UTC

    CNTN3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCNTN3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede6717fc908a20c18

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.378 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3e0dc5d599d7bc9f9fb10524…
    follows a710e19f7c30…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9577: CNTN3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.09, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18) vs -0.04 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CNTN3 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CNTN3 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.23 p 0.424 (needs p < 2.2e-4)