Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9518

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9517, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9518
    25 Oct 2026, 07:53 UTC

    FNIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFNIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf12ec7eea50c328c

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca5ca4df6269a46707c43ba7…
    follows 49320ec50302…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9518: FNIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.12, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FNIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.