Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9481

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9480, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9481
    25 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC

    TBCA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBCA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered964dc26e8534d61f

    discovery-0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c7083db41b2a9853062d352e…
    follows 9706637c646d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9481: TBCA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBCA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.