Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9463

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9462, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9463
    25 Oct 2026, 06:38 UTC

    SLC25A14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC25A14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered496d2c1695cb0afd

    discovery+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication+0.90 p=8.1e-4 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9295f16f957ce2835d411029…
    follows f60172157792…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9463: SLC25A14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.70 (p 0.0013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.69 (p 0.0017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.