Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9435

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9434, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9435
    25 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC

    RPS4Y1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS4Y1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered013cf56fb9996fae

    discovery-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e46cf3a6971bdda99765d397…
    follows a34ca364f8d6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9435: RPS4Y1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS4Y1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.