Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9414

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.738). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9413, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9414
    25 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC

    RHD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRHD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered315bd104a2b9efa2

    discovery-0.13 p=0.738 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.738)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    822f87cad4a704b3bf74ad37…
    follows 45162ee92bcf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9414: RHD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RHD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.