Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9347

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9346, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9347
    25 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC

    CD22

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCD22 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered018afdc91d4e3c55

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0895d0080025cff07d4e0388…
    follows a7536a8ce041…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9347: CD22 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD22 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.