Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9310

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.761). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9309, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9310
    25 Oct 2026, 03:17 UTC

    IGFN1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionIGFN1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56550a5b8407762b

    discovery-0.12 p=0.761 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.761)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    567aef71d9873e6bc1f2fca6…
    follows 3f9afbb5447b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9310: IGFN1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IGFN1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.