Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9298

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9297, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9298
    25 Oct 2026, 03:01 UTC

    VEGFC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVEGFC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfab852c22cc72129

    discovery+0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication+0.89 p=0.0013 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c7194fb0f6610219d838c219…
    follows c96f7eea333f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9298: VEGFC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VEGFC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.