Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0929

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 928, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0929
    17 Oct 2026, 09:57 UTC

    KRT86

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKRT86 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1bf06a0a24d943b8

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dee2bb9e791b4efe4d110c84…
    follows 96951c04cd88…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0929: KRT86 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KRT86 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.