Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9281

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.635). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9280, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9281
    25 Oct 2026, 02:38 UTC

    OSCAR

    microglia, braak

    predictionOSCAR in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredddba82e93b4b122d

    discovery+0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.635)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86daa44d345662bb5b9cb453…
    follows b17d83102467…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9281: OSCAR in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OSCAR in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.