Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9239

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0048; held-out +0.27 p 0.485). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9238, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9239
    25 Oct 2026, 02:22 UTC

    NR1H3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNR1H3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered640b7586c59f48b5

    discovery-0.84 p=0.0048 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0048; held-out +0.27 p 0.485)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    3f16c9087725db25c1b04e94…
    follows 1758d330b1dd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9239: NR1H3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR1H3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.