Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9228

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9227, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9228
    25 Oct 2026, 02:08 UTC

    CCKBR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCKBR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf792a8d8dd10e2b3

    discovery-0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.892 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b9deb0e2fb98b9f72c904df7…
    follows 2103c0c76fd4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9228: CCKBR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCKBR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.