Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9201

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9200, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9201
    25 Oct 2026, 01:29 UTC

    CENPE

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCENPE in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2d4fc8fe0737356

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d921dea3e891e1ac8f3fc6c9…
    follows 08a0f640e1db…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9201: CENPE in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CENPE in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.