Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9179

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.770). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9178, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9179
    25 Oct 2026, 00:56 UTC

    JAG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJAG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcd644020a77a5861

    discovery+0.11 p=0.770 n=9

    replication-0.86 p=0.0031 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.770)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    096aa213548ba0af35cdd56e…
    follows 4045bd0dbaad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9179: JAG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.