Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0917

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.049; held-out +0.32 p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 916, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0917
    17 Oct 2026, 09:40 UTC

    MPRIP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMPRIP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede94eae04a63432dc

    discovery-0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.049; held-out +0.32 p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9727583523c3b491585ef188…
    follows f2f72ace762d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0917: MPRIP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18) vs -0.30 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MPRIP in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MPRIP · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 0.0014)