Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9105

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.94 p 2.1e-4; held-out +0.20 p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9104, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9105
    24 Oct 2026, 23:09 UTC

    NEK7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEK7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered966f44978353faf6

    discovery+0.94 p=2.1e-4 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.94 p 2.1e-4; held-out +0.20 p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c56c8c78aac7c0908c6c91f7…
    follows 34db0c0b648f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9105: NEK7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18), 95% CI +0.00 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEK7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.