Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9097

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.065). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9096, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9097
    24 Oct 2026, 22:58 UTC

    ALDOA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALDOA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda1bb3dd2cbd32ab6

    discovery-0.64 p=0.065 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.065)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4d427cdc6f2f607b99f62943…
    follows 68ab68107d1f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9097: ALDOA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALDOA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.