Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9081

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9080, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9081
    24 Oct 2026, 22:33 UTC

    ATOX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATOX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d8ef96035e6ac13

    discovery-0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a389ab0812b2d3c33a773d9f…
    follows a8fd845a1ec4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9081: ATOX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATOX1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.