Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9020

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.551). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9019, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9020
    24 Oct 2026, 21:08 UTC

    IL10RA

    microglia, braak

    predictionIL10RA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8aea147b7fc207b

    discovery+0.23 p=0.551 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.551)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e10011b313626610a04edd30…
    follows 3ae5f6ce4de0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9020: IL10RA in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL10RA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.