Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9014

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.031; held-out -0.63 p 0.067). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9013, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9014
    24 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

    IDO2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIDO2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a5515f0bfb427fa

    discovery+0.71 p=0.031 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.031; held-out -0.63 p 0.067)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    efbce99b61c1d490c00de7ee…
    follows 0901fa76ff90…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9014: IDO2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IDO2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.