Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8893

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.266). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8892, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8893
    24 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC

    PSMC5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMC5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc2c11ab8946a89fb

    discovery+0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    replication+0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.266)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    24457decaccd327baa09a0ff…
    follows ae240017c518…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8893: PSMC5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI +0.06 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMC5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.