Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8876

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8875, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8876
    24 Oct 2026, 17:53 UTC

    OMA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOMA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0a800d8e42c032eb

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.435 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    055bb37fe9ff6b70340ada5f…
    follows 6ac3696d48fb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8876: OMA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.15 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OMA1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up OMA1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 2.4e-4)