Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8867

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8866, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8867
    24 Oct 2026, 17:39 UTC

    FBLN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBLN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered87b22d3be10607b7

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1f1b9936765a5865847d3c88…
    follows f5bb1f9611a7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8867: FBLN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.27 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBLN1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FBLN1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 2.4e-4)