Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8817

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.701). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8816, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8817
    24 Oct 2026, 16:36 UTC

    FANCF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFANCF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0b288e161c4eaeb

    discovery+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.701)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c5b37e75880f9b26985e99b…
    follows cb08ce28bf88…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8817: FANCF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FANCF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.