Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8793

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8792, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8793
    24 Oct 2026, 16:02 UTC

    TRPM3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTRPM3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc55afd0263815086

    discovery+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e3dff05664f22d007a44a3f3…
    follows 52c4637a4e3a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8793: TRPM3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRPM3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.