Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8774

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8773, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8774
    24 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC

    CFP

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCFP in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4bf8352c140af52f

    discovery-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.879 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de96d24f1a2e97f68daf3198…
    follows 979cf438e852…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8774: CFP in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CFP in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.