Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8755

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8754, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8755
    24 Oct 2026, 15:07 UTC

    POU5F1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOU5F1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8decad7abc1a8435

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    639e0d6a590152db3a2aba28…
    follows 600acedfc294…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8755: POU5F1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POU5F1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.