Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8678

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.206). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8677, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8678
    24 Oct 2026, 13:23 UTC

    SIDT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSIDT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered751ec33f286ed55e

    discovery-0.47 p=0.206 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.170 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.206)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ea46596ef37538ff0aa3ec93…
    follows 5e1a77b3821e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8678: SIDT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SIDT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.