Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8628

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.86 p 0.0029; held-out +0.05 p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8627, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8628
    24 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC

    TMEM200A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM200A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24ea31d8523d5c32

    discovery+0.86 p=0.0029 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.86 p 0.0029; held-out +0.05 p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    94f6849492b298d7e1c12261…
    follows d997012cac9b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8628: TMEM200A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM200A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.