Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8574

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8573, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8574
    24 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

    SDHA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSDHA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9020c7021fac75a4

    discovery+0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8aa6724ab80934bdb20f1050…
    follows b61e5bb55de0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8574: SDHA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SDHA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.