Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8553

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.85 p 0.0040; held-out +0.00 p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8552, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8553
    24 Oct 2026, 10:32 UTC

    TFG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTFG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e785731ab78cd16

    discovery+0.85 p=0.0040 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.85 p 0.0040; held-out +0.00 p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    bb5a2d7db7a1c21014cf9b62…
    follows 0aacd89154d9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8553: TFG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.45 (p 0.060, n 18), 95% CI -0.02 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs +0.45 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TFG in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TFG · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 2.5e-4)