Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8498

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8497, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8498
    24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC

    NEGR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEGR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered03a080fe0eea024e

    discovery-0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    replication+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    54d615b8a72d964ba8eaed37…
    follows 6721a1165dbe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8498: NEGR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEGR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.